06/12/07 -- Posts are now made to our
CD Rates Blog.
June posts were moved there, as well.
05/10/07 -- The Fed paused again. Overnight rates will remain at 5.25% and no reason to expect changes soon.
Here is an article for you.
Fed Will Keep 5.25% Until Definitive Data Shift: John M. Berry. Personally, I believe in the next
few months the housing problems will increase and begin to have more of an impact on the economy. As always,
keep a balanced approach to your investing.
04/19/07 -- I haven't posted in some time because we are working on a redesign of the site. But, in the wake
of the Virginia Tech tragedy, I wanted to share two quotes with you. One is recent and a link to the article
is posted, as well. The other comes from when a gunman attacked a church in TX. Both answer the question, "Where is God?", quite
well.
So where is God? He is in the prayer vigils. He is in the rivers of tears flowing from everyone affected. He is in the community coming together
to offer support to the families. He is at work in the love and strength people are offering each
other. God is with us. -
Luaren Green (FoxNews).
Here is the other.
He's right where He was when His own dear Son died on Calvary's cross.
He weeps with those who weep. He grieves with those who grieve.
His heart is as broken as ours is. He knows what it is like to lose a Son. God does not
promise us to be free from testing, trouble, and tribulation. We live in a fallen world.
He promises to walk through it beside us, carrying us if necessary. In the midst of any raging storm,
we can lean on God.
03/01/07 -- I'm posting two very good economic outlooks written by Dwight Johnston of Wescorp, Enjoy.
Out of Nowhere? -- February 28, 2007 and
Bernanke and Wall Street "Love Is In The Air!" -- February 15, 2007
02/28/07 -- What a day yesterday! As always the spin is it wasn't as bad as it seemed because
the DOW was already so high. Today we saw the 4th Quarter GDP revised downards as well as
inflation numbers. Sub-prime lending and concerns with China seem to be what is currently bringing
down yields. Here is an article from CNNMoney about the GDP and inflation.
Economic growth not so strong
02/23/07 -- For the most part rates are holding steady. The news is back and forth as to how bad inflation
is vs. the economy. News up until this point suggests that FOMC will be holding for some time.
01/31/07 -- There has been an uptick in top short-term rates the last few days. This may be in part to
end of month activity, as well as, some reports that still point to higher inflation. Frankly, I'm
not convinced. I still think housing will decline further. And if rates did go up, housing would
be facing even more trouble. Here is a link from BankRate.com about how they researched a dubious offer.
Great information.
Be wary of high-yield Internet offers. Happy surfing.
01/10/07 -- Big news seems to be the weather. The relatively warm weather for much of the US seems to
be skewing the forecasts for many of the economic outlooks that are published. Rates overall are holding, but we do have a
whopper that is paying a top CD rate 6.07% APR / 6.25% APY for 3-years to 7-years. Check-out the
WesCorp commentary for today (01/10/2007)
12/14/06 -- Rates continue to ease down. Average 5-Year CD rate is around 5.20%. We still have some exceptions that are
higher though. It appears to be a battle between the markets and the FOMC. The markets believe the economic slow
down will force a rate decrease. The FOMC still believes inflation is a concern. Only time will tell who is right.
12/01/06 -- How the mighty fall?!? It appears that our last 6% rate has fallen (except for one of our
IRA CD Rates).
Any rate and term at or above 5.50% is a good rate. News continues to bounce around. Some are betting on a rate cute early 2007, some mid-year, and some in early 2008.
Which every way you slice it, the next move will most likely be down. The question is when.
11/24/06 -- Posted a new article. Check it out and let me know if the information is helpful.
Safe Investments
11/15/06 -- Up or Down. That is the question. Yesterday's news led us to believe a cut from the Fed was coming soon.
Today's news has us believing it could go either way. I think they need to pass a law that the release of reports
needs to be on the same day so that all information can be viewed and analyzed together. The back and forth nature just
isn't healthy. Thankfully CD rates don't fluctuate as much as Treasuries and Agencies. But, I will say it again. Build a Laddered
CD Portfolio and the ups and downs won't cause you as much heartburn.
11/01/06 -- The economy is showing more and more signs of slowing. Manufacturing is off, Housing continues to slow, Auto Sales is struggling, etc.
Retailers are still hopeful that we will open our pocketbooks for Christmas. The 10-year Treasury is down to 4.57%. I realize there are
quite a few good short-term rates out there, but be cautious about putting all of your funds there. If a bank is offering 5.50 for 4-mos, but
5.10% for 5-yrs, what do you think the bank thinks rates are going to do?
10/17/06 -- Two more good columns from Bloomberg. Check them out.
Fed's Poole Sees Equal Chance
Interest Rates Will Rise or Fall and
Volcker Says Inflation May Accelerate, Become Harder to Contain
10/13/06 -- Friday the 13th. Anybody scared. The economy sure is. This report is bad; this report is good. It never ends.
Here is one for today,
Treasuries Fall as Retail Sales Excluding Fuel Rose Last Month.
Even though it is uncertain when the Fed may ease rates, it doesn't look like an increase is coming either.
09/27/06 -- Rates are coming down fast. Although we still have some on top on the long-term, they seem to
be disappearing quickly. Be sure to call and verify our rates.
09/25/06 -- Comment from Dwight Johnston of Wescorp, "Given where yields are, we need to see a very
weak number just to keep the market where it is. The yield curve now fully qualifies for a A-1, first-class,
economic-slowdown-predicting inversion. The market is pricing in the beginning of the next easing
cycle." We are anticipating a rate decrease sometime next year. See our
Historical rates below.
We are still above average rates for most periods.
09/20/06 -- The FOMC held rates for the second time. Rates should remain steady with occasional spikes as
banks or credit unions have pressing funding needs.
09/07/06 -- Yes, the outlook changes daily. But look at our
Compare CD Rates page
for an indication of where banks think rates are going. An inverted curve means that most people feel that inflation is containable
if not already contained. Furthermore, many believe the FOMC is even going to add some accommodation back in, i.e., lower rates sometime next year.
Keep your portfolio balanced and you should be okay.
08/24/06 -- I'm not the only who thinks just going short with your CD investments may not be the greatest idea. Here is a good article from about.com.
Suprising CD Rates!
08/16/06 -- OK, back to money. News coming out now seems to indicate Fed may be done with rate hikes. Banks would certainly like to think so and
are taking advantage of the pause by continuing to lower their rates. Here is another fine article from Bloomberg:
Treasuries Rise as Inflation, Housing Data Suggest Fed Is Done
08/09/06 --
11 Secrets from Women and Men. Life
isn't all about money. I found this to be a good read. Maybe this will help us understand each other just a little bit
better. For my Bride -- I love you.
08/08/06 --
The Fed Pauses. Remember, yields move opposite of
the price for bonds. So although the bond prices have gone up, the actual yields have gone down. 10yr treasury is currently at 4.92% and the 2yr is at 4.93%. The overnight lending rate is
5.25%. And since the banks
were anticipating this many of them had already begun to lower rates. I will have fresh rates posted tomorrow. Have I every told you
to build a ladder? Ask me how?
08/03/06 -- I can't believe it. I made the national news today with this headline from CNN "
OIL SLIPS on CHRIS".
Here is a link to prove it:
View article.
And you guys thought I was just a silly CD broker. Alan and Ben, eat your hearts out.
08/01/06 -- A few days can make such a "difference" these days. Which to me is not a good thing. News is too instant. In this microwave world
everything can flip-flop on a dime. Here is some news from Bloomberg:
Inflation Data Spurs concern. Frankly, I think the Fed needs to pause, but for some reason they haven't asked me. The slow down that has become evident is from
data that is a few months old, which means we need some time to see how the 17 increases we've had so far play out. A pause doesn't mean they won't raise rates in September, it
just means they want to analyze more data. This is not a bad thing.
07/28/06 -- Big news today is the drop in the GDP. The Fed is almost certain to pause in August. As a result, we have seen many rates dropping 5 - 10 BPs.
Countrywide Securities is even predicting the Fed will lower rates sometime in the 1st Quarter of 2007. Today, the 2Y and 10Y Treasury dropped below 5.00%.
My mantra remains: Build a Ladder. We can help.
07/21/06 -- We are seeing some rates come down this week. Last week we had a 5-year paying 5.95%. That bank is now paying 5.85%.
07/11/06 -- At the moment we seem to be in a holding pattern. My prediction was close. We had a bank offering a 1Y CD for 5.99% APR for other financial institutions. Our best 5Y APR is 5.95%. Also, if you haven't noticed the 2Y and 10Y treasury are currently below the overnight rate.
06/27/06 -- Is inflation or a slowing economy more of a concern? Inflation means goods and services that you need, will be more expensive in the future. People have already borrowed a lot to afford things now such as cars, home improvements, education, etc. (myself included). Many of those funds have come from equity loans that tend to be variable. As rates rise, extra funds may shrink, and spending will slow. If the economy slows too much, companies could slow down their investments in new technology and personnel. And although rates will go down, so will incomes and for some it could be drastic. Thus causing a downward spiral. So the FOMCs goal is find that neutral level.
The fact is both are a concern. We are just cogs in the wheel. So ladder your portfolio and stop worrying about which way the wind blows. Better yet, despite which way the wind blows for you, help reverse course for someone else. Buy some lemonade from a kid on the corner, pay for someone's dry cleaning, do something nice for someone. Keep looking up until...
06/26/06 -- So people actually read this stuff. That is encouraging. My predictions are based on a hike in rates this week and an anticipated one in August. If the one in August does not transpire, rates for the most part will hold at current levels. Do you wait? My feeling has never changed. Ladder your portfolio.
06/22/06 -- It is about time that I go out on a limb and make a prediction. So here it is by 7/10 we will see 6.00% for 1Y. Also, we will the see the same or less on 5Y. News out today shows that the Fed interest rate hikes are indeed slowing the economy. Will the Fed overshoot? Your guess is as good as mine.
06/15/06 -- Here we are. Fed is almost certain to raise rates. Here is a good read from a Bloomberg columnist on inflation. Look for 6-month CD rates to go to 5.50% and 1-year rates to 5.75% over the next couple of weeks.
06/14/06 -- The consumer price index increased 0.4% in May, led by higher energy and shelter costs. Core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, increased 0.3%, above the expectation of 0.2%. 10-year treasury went above 5.00% but still below the 2-year. Most likely scenario, short-term CD rates up 25 Basis Points or so; long-term maybe up a smidgen. Have I told you to consider a ladder, yet?!?
06/13/06 -- Trying to cover all bases on this one. Please see this link below for a special alert form the FDIC.
06/08/06 -- The 10-year treasury dipped below the 2-year today. At the moment they are even. Although, there are inflation concerns, a lower 10-year signals that people believe it will be contained by the diligence of the FOMC.
06/07/06 -- As I predicted we are seeing the 6-month and 1-year rates close to the high end of my range (see 5/6/06). And as predicted, long-term CD rates have not moved in tandem. Matter of fact, many banks are posting higher 1-Year rates than on any other term. My suggestion as always is to look to create a ladder or maintain the one you have. If you really like playing the rate game, invest some funds in the short-term, but if you put all of your funds there, you will be disappointed in a year to two.
05/16/2006 -- See the link below for the FDICs latest consumer news. Lots of good information.
05/10/2006 -- FOMC raised the overnight lending rate to 5.00%. And with the usual Fed Speak, they believe the economy's growth will cool slightly for the second half of the year, don't see that inflation has become a big problem, and will react appropriately to incoming data. Just don't go out and by that SUV, yet.
05/06/2006 -- Mixed news today. Nonfarm payrolls lower than expected, but rolling average still healthy. Wages have been up, but gas and oil prices are eating away at them. Home sales down, but builders feigning optimism. Look for best 6-Month CD interest rates @ 5.30% - 5.50% and 1-Year @ 5.65% - 5.75% as we go into June. However, longer-term CD rates may not change much. If you have a ladder already, stick to it. Otherwise, for the last time, start one. :O)
05/03/2006 -- Of the people in the "know", 44% now predict an increase in June. This would make the target rate 5.25%. We are seeing many institutions offer higher CD rates on the 1Y term than they do on their longer term CDs. Of course other banks and credit unions are raising their longer-term CD rates. How do you know what to do? As I always say, ladder your maturities.
04/26/2006 -- We are seeing some banks begin to offer higher rates on the shorter-term CDs then the longer term. This can be a sign that banks believe rates will be on their way down. Don't just buy short-term.
04/13/2006 -- 10-Year Treasury hits 5.00%. If it remains, longer-term CD rates may be affected.
03/28/2006 -- The FOMC did raise rates to 4.75%.
03/28/2006 -- The FOMC is almost certain to raise short-term rates to 4.75% and thus pushing the prime to 7.75%. Most also believe another increase will come in May. After that is anyone's guess though. The curve will most likely invert further and 6M rates may climb higher than the 1Y. Keep a good ladder. What comes up, must come down.
03/14/2006 -- Since I can never know which page people land on first, As of 04/01/06, the FDIC will insure up to $250,000 for certain retirement accounts of which IRAs are included. See below for additional info.
03/10/2006 -- Check-out my first web article, "Maximize CD Rates During a Flat and Inverted Yield Curve". Link is on the left
02/15/2006 -- I updated our historical data. The 2005 Data is through 12/31/05.
02/07/2006 -- The FDIC released a press release that Feb 5 - Feb 11 is National Consumer Protection Week. Below you will find a helpful links. I also posted some historical CD rate information from our database.
